WG3 - Uncertainty
An important and quite distinct aspect of tsunami risk analysis is the quantification and reduction of uncertainty on all levels of the analysis chain. Since this aspect is paramount in many respects – from uncertainty propagation over determining sources of uncertainty, to the quantification of epistemic and aleatoric components of uncertainty – a Working Group on uncertainty reduction will be assigned. Some of the work items will include
- Determination of sources of uncertainty
- Development and collection of existing methods of uncertainty quantification
- Rigorous approaches to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty cascades
- Sensitivity assessment of individual PTHA/PTRA components
- Treatment of subjective uncertainty
Main deliverables will include reports on scientific gaps and contributions to guidelines.